brentgarland.com » certitude http://brentgarland.com tomfoolery. strange ideas. eclectic prattle. Sat, 01 May 2010 16:45:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 en hourly 1 Well, that explains a lot. http://brentgarland.com/well-that-explains-a-lot/2008/02/ http://brentgarland.com/well-that-explains-a-lot/2008/02/#comments Mon, 25 Feb 2008 16:10:51 +0000 Brent http://brentgarland.com/archives/32 The most likely behavior to leave me agog is when a person or group continues to express overwhelming certitude in their abilities ((“Abilities,” here, should be read as broadly as possible to include achievements, accomplishments, strategies, plans, policies, or any other applicable brainchild.)) even as overwhelming evidence of their utter failure ((Failure to lead, to direct or advance their goal or idea, or to accomplish their task. You get the idea.)) piles up. I wish this was a rare feeling for me, but examples abound:

  • CEOs justifying their ludicrous business plans ((Web “synergy” anyone?)) even as their companies go down the tubes.
  • Neocon adherents continuing to assert that the Iraq War is not only essential to American security, but the crown jewel of American foreign policy. ((Yes, Bill Kristol, I am looking at you.))
  • Ralph Nader launches yet another presidential campaign because HE’S the guy to “get things done for the American people”? ((C’mon! WTF?))

Then I read this, and now I have three little words to say, rather than be dumbstruck: Dunning-Kruger Effect.

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